Today was the last warm and dry day as an active storm track moves in with back-to-back atmospheric rivers into next week. The biggest impact days will be tomorrow this week and Monday, Tuesday and potentially Wednesday next week. Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees cooler than it was earlier this week with temperatures topping out 5 to 10 degrees below average.
Storm One:
Major threats: heavy rain, flooding, thunderstorms, damaging winds, high surf and some mountain snow.
Timing: Showers begin before sunrise and will mostly be light to moderate after 4/5am with intensity and coverage building after 8/9am with widespread steady rain through 1/2pm. Be prepared for a slow morning commute! Rain will turn more showery late Thursday afternoon through Friday and while most rain will be light to moderate, periods of heavy rain will continue. Any thunderstorms that form will produce very heavy rainfall in a short period of time increasing the threat of flooding.
Rainfall totals from Thursday through Friday will range between 1 to 2.5" and locally up to 3" from the coast to the mountains with most of it falling on Thursday, and .25 to .75" in the deserts.
A Flood Watch will be in effect for the entire county from 6am Thursday through 10am Friday. The San Diego River and Santa Margarita River are forecast to reach flood stage.
Wind: Unlike last week's storm this one will have very strong winds with peak winds tomorrow morning. A Wind Advisory will be in effect for the coast starting at 4am tomorrow and for the valleys starting at 6am, both ending at 2pm, for southerly winds of 15 to 30mph and gusts of 40 to 50mph. With the ground already saturated from last week's rain the threat of downed trees will be greater with this storm so be sure to pay attention to your surroundings and park your vehicle outside of striking distance of potentially falling trees. Also, secure any loose outdoor items from blowing away.
Surf: High surf will impact the beaches with a High Surf Advisory in effect from 2am Thursday through 6am Saturday for waves of 5 to 8' and sets to 10'.
Snow: Snow levels will start high above 7,000' on Thursday crashing to 4,000' to 4,500' tomorrow night into Friday morning which means Thursday will mostly be rain with rain transitioning to snow for the higher mountain elevations overnight Thursday into Friday. Julian sits at 4,200' so we may get a dusting in Julian while the higher mountain elevations of Mt. Laguna, Palomar Mountain and Lookout Mountain could get 1 to 4 inches of snow.
Stay with the Pinpoint Weather Team as the storm moves through for up-to-date impacts from the storm and any weather warnings that get issued.
Showers taper off into Friday afternoon and evening with dry conditions on Saturday, though it will remain cool and a stray shower can't be ruled out due to the residual moisture. Another storm is set to arrive by early next week.
Storm Two:
A slow-moving storm will bring another round of widespread rain early next week with the latest weather models slowing the timing down to arrive at some point Monday with rain lingering through Wednesday. Due to the slow nature of this storm, we are likely going to see several updates as to when the worst of the rain will hit San Diego; but also due to the slow nature confidence is high that this will be a high-impact storm with a lot of rain over several days.
The potential exists for an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain which also means another storm bringing the threat of flooding.
Gusty winds will also accompany this storm and with the ground even more saturated after the rain this week we will once again have the threat of downed trees.
This far out it looks like snow levels will be quite high above 5,000 to 6,500' and there remains quite a bit of variability in the forecast for now so snowfall amounts are uncertain.
Thursday's Highs:
Coast: 58-64°
Inland: 55-62°
Mountains: 40-53°
Deserts: 60-62°
Follow ABC 10News Meteorologist Megan Parry on Facebook at Megan Parry 10News, Instagram @mis_meg_wx and Twitter @10NewsParry.
