If former President Donald Trump loses the 2024 election, it’ll likely be because of towns like Oaks, Pennsylvania.
Situated about 20 miles northwest of Philadelphia, Oaks is set in one of the Democratic stronghold’s so-called “collar counties” -- Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks and Chester – suburban neighborhoods that in recent years have become crucial to the presidential battleground map.
When Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016, it was because he successfully ate into Hillary Clinton’s margins in this part of the country; Clinton still won all four collar counties, but Trump clung onto enough votes in each to win statewide. President Joe Biden reversed that trend in 2020, winning the collar counties handily and flipping Pennsylvania blue once again.
Now, Trump is back vying for these suburban voters, hoping they hold the keys to the Keystone state. It was his first visit to the collar counties since the Republican National Convention, following stops in places like Erie and Scranton. The region is one where the campaign is doubling down on the message, “are you better off now than you were four years ago?” according to a campaign official.
“To the people of Pennsylvania: I love you,” Trump told a crowd of thousands during a roundtable Monday evening. “I know you so well. I’m here all the time.”
Trump’s remarks during the event focused on, among other topics, the economy and inflation, what have been top issues for voters this cycle and ones in which the former president maintains a slight edge over Harris, according to public opinion research.
“We’re going to get the prices down, because the damage has been done,” Trump said.
Voters present all attested to their faith that Trump would deliver on that message, speaking to the economic pain they’re facing.
“My electric bill, my car insurance, my groceries are through the roof,” said Vicky Wagner, from nearby Audubon, Pennsylvania. “It's just, it's unaffordable.”
“I have a 22-year-old son and a 35-year-old daughter that can't afford anything. My son, I don't think, will ever move out,” said Limerick resident Jim Bradley. “The younger generation, I don't know how people get by with the price of things.”
After four questions and a couple pauses in the town hall for medics to tend to overheating crowd members, the town hall turned into a music listening session with Trump and the audience, but not before he encouraged voters to turn out at the polls.
Meanwhile up on Pennsylvania’s northwest coast, Vice President Kamala Harris was simultaneously wooing voters in another of the state’s swingiest counties: Erie, Pennsylvania, which has voted for the victor in every presidential contest since 2008.
“Erie County, you are a ‘pivot county,’” Harris said. “How you all vote in presidential elections often ends up predicting the national results.”
During her rally, Harris referenced Trump’s recent comments about “the enemy from within” — remarks he made in a Fox News interview where he suggested the military be sent in to “handle” what he described as “sick people, radical left lunatics.”
“He's talking about the enemy within Pennsylvania,” Harris said, warning of significant risks of a second Trump term and describing him as unfit for office.
“Donald Trump is increasingly unstable and unhinged, and he is out for unchecked power,” she added. Her campaign recently debuted a new ad juxtaposing those words with testimonials from former Trump officials who’ve since renounced him.
Harris’ remarks come as she just released a new “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,” a list of policy proposals intended to benefit that constituency including access to new, forgivable loans, increased education and training opportunities and the legalization of recreational marijuana.
“We will build a future where we have what I call an opportunity economy, where everyone can compete and have a real chance to succeed,” Harris said in Erie.
Though Black men have historically voted Democratic, the group has been trending towards Trump of late – raising fears among many Democrats of a possible spoiler. As such, her campaign is engaging in a full-court press to reach Black voters, including an interview on Tuesday in Detroit with Charlamagne tha God, the popular host of the radio show The Breakfast Club.
Last week, former President Barack Obama during his first rally for Harris was explicit with his appeals to Black voters:
“My understanding, based on reports I'm getting from campaigns and communities, is that we have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running,” Obama said. “Now you’re thinking about sitting out or supporting somebody who has a history of denigrating you, because you think that’s a sign of strength, because that’s what being a man is? Putting women down? That’s not acceptable.”
Turnout key as race remains neck-and-neck
Both candidates’ Pennsylvania stops come as voters in those counties have begun returning mail-in ballots — with Harris and Trump pressing their supporters to get to the polls.
“If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing,” Trump said.
“Now is the time to make your plan to vote,” Harris noted.
Though Trump has previously cast doubts about the safety of mail-in ballots, describing them as “dangerous” and “corrupt” and falsely suggesting they were “rigged” against him, his campaign has now changed its tune. RNC co-chair Lara Trump, Trump’s daughter-in-law, recently taped a robocall ad urging Americans to “get out and vote before election day.”
A Trump campaign official told Scripps News their operation is feeling confident about their prospects in Pennsylvania. “There’s a lot of talk about ground game investments and offices and paid staff,” the official said. “But, you know, the important thing isn't the input but the output. And the output here is looking very promising,” the official added, pointing to voter registration trends they see.
Harris’ team, meanwhile, has touted those ground game investments as evidence for their strength in the state. The Harris-Walz campaign has 50 coordinated offices throughout the Commonwealth, including 11 in the collar counties, and more than 400 staff on the ground, an official told Scripps News.
Polls show Pennsylvania deadlocked, with the final result expected to be razor-thin. As a result, both campaigns will be back here this week: Harris will return to Philly on Wednesday, while Gov. Tim Walz, her potential vice president, will hold events then in the western part of the state.
Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running-mate, will take to the Philadelphia suburbs for a “Moms for America event” on Tuesday before heading to rural Williamsport for a rally Wednesday.
