The U.S. has a long history of early voting and voting by mail. Early voting skyrocketed in 2020 amid the pandemic, but this year, Americans are still taking advantage of these options.
Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida, says that with the election 19 days away, about 1 million Americans are voting every day, and that daily number will only go up as Nov. 5 gets closer. "We're running at a clip that's higher than 2016, and it's lower than 2020, but that's what we would expect at this point in time, because the conditions of the elections have just changed so much," he said.
Traditionally, Democrats have been more likely to vote early. But this year, the Republican Party is promoting it, and that appears to be encouraging more GOP voters to cast their ballots ahead of Nov. 5.
Eight states and D.C. are all vote-by-mail jurisdictions, and those places will give us the earliest indications of voter turnout.
"Typically, we see upwards of 90% to 95% of the ballots returned to election officials by that weekend before the election," McDonald said. "Once we know what turnout is going to be in those states, we can start looking elsewhere and project what we think the overall turnout will be nationwide."
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Early voting numbers tell us how many people have voted, but not how they voted. Results won't be released until after polls close on Election Day. In states where early votes are tabulated first, we might see Vice President Kamala Harris with an early lead, but that doesn't mean she'll win.
"What Harris needs to do is build up a wall with that early vote, because that wall is going to have to withstand what happens on Election Day with this red wave that's going to come in," McDonald explained.
Polls still show a very close race between Harris and former President Donald Trump, both nationally and in key battleground states. A close race means we might need to wait a few days, or maybe even longer, until it's clear who will be the next occupant of the White House.
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