LOS ANGELES (AP) — House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy has predicted the GOP could seize control of the chamber in November by picking up seats in just one state: his own, California.
Home to 1 in 8 Americans, the nation's most populous state is known as a Democratic monolith, but that distinction masks a more complicated political stew behind its national reputation.
No one disputes that California tilts to the political left — Republicans haven’t won a statewide race since 2006 and Democrats dominate the legislative and congressional delegations. But scattered pockets of conservative strength remain, particularly in rural and farming areas and sprawling Southern California suburbs.
McCarthy, who lives in Bakersfield, and other Republicans believe as many as five districts in California could swing their way next month — enough to give them House control in a year when voters typically punish the party that holds the White House. In a troubling sign for Democrats, President Joe Biden's popularity nationally remains lackluster.
With mail-in ballots for the Nov. 8 election already sent to voters, many Californians are in an anxious mood, stressed by high prices at the grocery store and gas pump, an unchecked homeless crisis and rising crime rates spotlighted in Los Angeles and other big cities by smash-and-grab robberies and home invasions.
Republicans fault Biden and state Democrats for crime and inflation, while Democrats have been warning about threats to abortion rights, mirroring arguments that frame the national fight for the House majority.
In an acknowledgement of the risks, Biden visited California last week to shore up support for vulnerable Democrats and raise money.
About a half-dozen House contests are closely matched, and several others are competitive. There are 221 Democrats, 212 Republicans and two vacancies in the House.
The GOP, however, must overcome hefty Democratic registration advantages in some competitive districts. State Republican ranks have been withering for years and the GOP is outnumbered about 2-to-1 by Democrats statewide.
The main battlegrounds are Orange County — a suburban expanse south of Los Angeles that was once a GOP stronghold but has become increasingly diverse and Democratic — and the Central Valley, an inland stretch sometimes called the nation’s salad bowl for its agricultural production.
California is dropping to 52 House seats next year, from 53, because its once-soaring population growth has stalled.
Republicans hold just 11 of those seats.
Democrats want to claw back four House districts they lost in 2020 and hope to gain more. They’ve been stressing that reproductive rights are on the ballot and would be in jeopardy if Republicans take charge, after the Supreme Court in June stripped away constitutional protections for abortion.
Former President Donald Trump's continued influence on the GOP looms in the background — he's widely unpopular in the state outside his conservative base.
“If we lose control of the House and Senate, we have a different world,” Biden warned at a recent Democratic National Committee reception. “There’s so much at stake.”
