SAN DIEGO (KGTV) — San Diego's wet winter thus far is fitting the pattern for strong El Niño seasons. But the impact of climate change is also important to remember, according to climate researcher Dan Cayan of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
“It’s kind of what we’ve already experienced, but maybe a bit amplified," Cayan said of the effect of climate change.
Thursday, NOAA experts said that this season's El Niño is shaping up to be one of the strongest on record, though it is likely to recede this spring. La Niña conditions are now expected to arrive next winter.
While La Niña is typically more dry and El Niño is more wet, Cayan says there are several factors that weigh into how much rain San Diego sees in any given year. Last year's winter deluge fell into a La Niña year, while the last two El Niño cycles were drier than normal.
Colleagues of Cayan are looking into how climate change will effect these cycles. “Our part of the world, however, models are suggesting that the larger events could get magnified.”
He says climate change is likely to amplify weather extremes, with storms being fewer in number but much stronger. And particularly rainy seasons will likely be only interspersed between years of worsening droughts. In fact, Cayan has a presentation that he gives which he calls "California's Wetter and Drier Future."
