A tentative ceasefire has been announced in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, marking a significant development after more than a year of intense violence in the Middle East.
“This is certainly a momentous day if the process continues to move forward,” said Darren Kew, Dean of the University of San Diego’s School of Peace Studies. Kew, a former advisor on peace and democracy initiatives to the United Nations and U.S. State Department, emphasized the importance of this moment for both Israeli and Palestinian lives.
“The impact this will have on Palestinian lives in Gaza, and of course Israeli lives, in terms of the return of at least some of the hostages, is very, very important,” he said.
Kew, however, also stressed that the current agreement is a ceasefire and does not constitute a long-term peace plan. Achieving a comprehensive resolution to the conflict, he explained, will be far more complex.
“Momentum is going in the right direction, but a permanent agreement will be much harder to reach," he said.
When asked about what might happen if either side violates the ceasefire, Kew acknowledged the fragility of the situation.
“Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of checks and balances other than returning to the fighting,” he explained. “The Americans do have some leverage, especially through the large amount of military assistance they provide to Israel."
Kew says one surprising development has been the cooperation between the Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration in recent weeks.
“Given the rancor between the two camps during the election, this was definitely something we did not expect,” Kew said. He noted this stands in contrast to the transition period in 2017, during Trump’s first term.
As for how the incoming Trump administration might handle the conflict, Kew said it’s too soon to predict, but highlighted one key area to watch:
“The thing we really need to watch is just how close the Trump administration is going to be to the Netanyahu administration,” he said. "Certainly the signals that came up during the campaign were that President Trump is going to be much closer to Prime Minister Netanyahu than President Biden was. If that's the case, the Netanyahu administration has certainly sent signals that it is looking to turn its attention next to Iran and perhaps, as well, to some sort of annexation of the West Bank, both of which could be extremely inflammatory in the Middle East."
